Maybe not formally, but the armed forces are the real—I think the real power at this point, in the government. But I think—first of all, we’ve seen change in governments in the region. Q: On Venezuela, I mean, if I might just push you a little bit. And I think if the pressure increases from the outside, then I think there could be—you know, then I think—I think that could be helpful in sending a message to people within the government that this—that all the governments are really—are against—condemn what’s going on, and could lead to some sort of fracturing and fragmenting within the government, which could open some possibilities for a negotiated scenario. And that—you know, the OAS has challenges in that regard. And I think they delegitimize the government. I’m not sure how far they go in terms of helping resolve the crisis in Venezuela. How has that affected the standing of the media? The economy barely missed recession during the first half of 2019, and growth prospects for 2020 remain at just 1%, after repeated forecast cuts. Time for your questions. What are possible scenarios going forward for an end to the Maduro regime or an increasingly authoritarian and repressive government in Venezuela? WASHINGTON — Watching political unrest explode across South America this fall, officials at the State Department noticed an eerily similar pattern in … ARNSON: There’s a Brazil piece in there and an Argentina piece. I think that’s what the region—that’s the way, at least, that I think is useful to understand the region. Venezuela cares about that. And there’s Lava Jato, but then there is an investigation of the revenue service, and there’s an investigation of the meat-packing industry, and there’s an investigation of the pension funds. Judge Moro, who’s at the head of the Lava Jato investigation, said, look, I’m not trying to destroy the economy, I’m trying to destroy the corruption. HOCK: Yeah, Argentina is a bit of a bright spot. Or when you use the word “test,” do you just mean, you know, something else? You know, does that mean that Mexico’s moving to the left? These interviews, gathered from a number of different interview series, focus on southern politics and politicians after World War II. Trump or Biden: Who’s Better for Latin America? And if they don’t perform and they don’t deliver, and we have corruption cases, they’re going to say, well, let’s try something else. So I think, you know, what more forceful measures? 1:35 AM ET Tue, 8 Dec 2020. Vizcarra’s Ouster Puts Constitutional Reform on the Agenda in Peru, Chile Prepares to Write a New Constitution—and a New Social Contract, Arce Looks to Heal Bolivia’s Divisions, but Morales’ Shadow Looms Large, COVID-19 Is Making the Latest Migrant Exodus From Venezuela Even Worse. Could—taking the point about Lula—could Lula come back? And one of the critiques that Lula’s defenders have made is that they are essentially being pilloried for crimes that other parties have been committing as well, and that they’re the only ones who are targeted by prosecutors, by judges, and by the media. Unfortunately, in Latin America, prejudices and stereotypes from the past remain and cases of harassment or street violence against women continue. Challenges to the political order The economic and social changes taking place in Latin America inevitably triggered demands for political change as well; political change in turn affected the course of socioeconomic development. If you look at Peru, we haven’t talked about, Chile looks like it’s going that way. Is Pinera Impairing Chile’s Leadership on Climate Change? And are there things we as a country could do to make it harder for people who are in business to be payors to these politicians? And that I think has led governments from, you know, Peru to Argentina, Mexico—Mexico’s a case that has—you know, as you know, it doesn’t have a great tradition of—you know, is very respectful of sort of sovereignty and non-intervention, but has taken—the foreign minister has taken a very forceful stand on Mexico. Here we go again. Or do you have to do what you were talking about before, political reform, which, at the end of the day—I mean, it is an opportunity, a justification—I’m not saying it’ll happen; it’s too hard of a nut to crack—but it is an opportunity to at least, I think, start talking about political reform in Brazil. President Macri of Argentina was just here at the White House, met with President Trump, had a number of meetings around town. It doesn’t help Macri that Brazil’s going through this right when it’s their largest trading partner. And in any case, any decision there could be appealed to the supreme court. Now it’s gotten worse in Colombia. So why don’t we turn—. So talk to us about Brazil. SHIFTER: Yeah, thanks. Most of the people in Latin America can trace their ancestry back to the following three groups. And that polarization is reflected in how—the positions that different candidates are taking. How successful has he been in turning around the economy? You know, this is really one of the first times in, you know, Brazilian history that U.S. companies needing to operate under the rules of FCPA is actually a value add. In the category of what should United State do regarding Venezuela, for the past two years our approach has essentially been let’s not be heavy handed, let’s try and let other countries take—be involved to try and push the issue of what to do on Venezuela. So having the United States with that environment, due to our own polarized politics right now, layered on top of the polarized politics in Latin America, that dynamic is one that, candidly, worries me. I’m not sure what they would be. © 2020, World Politics Review LLC. We have the bank that deals with economic and social development. On no. And just speaking from a commercial standpoint, kind of where I spent my day today, you know, this is an area where, frankly, the U.S. has a lot of competitive advantage. Matt, Kellie, final word? And the problem with impeachment is, as you said, Cindy, there are so many people who are involved in this case that there aren’t many bodies left standing. I think it’s unlikely that today will be the defining moment for the OAS with regard to Venezuela, but it certainly played a very active role that other institutions—multilateral institutions have not been able to play. Many countries are now facing low GDP increases and high unemployment. CFR breaks down 2020’s biggest news with graphics. And this is an issue that, yes, they’re distracted, but is near and dear to the Brazilians heart in particular. The second possibility is direct elections. (Laughter.). The legitimacy of democratic institutions is based on a sense of fairness that was being questioned from different angles and that fostered the anger of South Americans. This is bad for everyone. But I think the message was delivered by both Congress and the administration that the drug issue really has to be addressed a lot more effectively moving forward. And when he’s not here, he’s an associate professor at the School of International Service at American University. I know that there’s a lot happening in terms of humanitarian aid, just the—just the tragedy of the humanitarian crisis is real. Also, I think the Chileans have been, as I said, very assertive in promoting the Pacific Alliance as kind of the TPP 2.0 solution. There’s no ambassador now, acting ambassador. And they’ve been playing it on both fronts. TAYLOR: That’s a great question. That’s one possibility. They pass, in just a matter of weeks, the leadership of the Pacific Alliance to the Colombians. You’re sitting around the dinner table with your family, and then someone brings up the election. And there’s a lot of fear of unemployment yet. In South America, we observe two main trends. Politics. So it’s—I’m not saying that this is the solution. And if he doesn’t, what happens in political terms? This is a government that is backed by the armed forces, that controls key institutions and, frankly, still has 24 percent approval. I think there’s broad support here. You know, I’m not naïve enough to think that’s the solution. Again, I think that’s significant. But, I mean, I do think that it’s something that needs to be discussed. Q: Thank you. Because I will have all my friends in one or two years back in government and we will be back. It reduces South American policymakers’ ability to anticipate, shape and adapt to global developments. Venezuelan opposition leaders and the governments that support them just saw their strategy for dislodging President Nicolas Maduro culminate in failure. SCHIFFER: Well, I think that Colombia is one of the few bipartisan success stories, not only in Latin American policy but I think globally. And it’s true everywhere. HOCK: Maybe Michael, for you, but my view is that, you know, the Venezuela situation and the reliance by not just the U.S. but a number of the countries—you cited them earlier—leaning on the OAS to kind of get us through this process has been really revitalizing in a way. supports HTML5 video, Adjunct Senior Fellow for Latin America Studies, Council on Foreign Relations; Associate Professor, School of International Service, American University, Managing Partner, McLarty Associates; Former Director for Brazil and the Southern Cone, Office of the United States Trade Representative, Director, Latin American Program, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. And I think, you know, one of the conversations that’s going on in Brazil right now is how do we overcome this polarization? Please raise your hand, identify yourself, and wait for the microphone. ARNSON: OK. We should see a scenario where we begin to see some fractures within the government Chavismo forces, and some sense that this whole Bolivarian Revolution, which started in 1999, is over. Let’s move on. And even some of the Caribbean countries that had been aligned are now coming around. What do—how successful do you think Santos was in reaching out to the White House and to the Congress, and maintaining a sense of bipartisanship in U.S. policy with Colombia? The latest breaking news, comment and features from The Independent. So that’s one scenario, that basically things continue as we’ve seen them—as terrible as they are and as much as all of us say this is unsustainable. And just today there’s news of some fairly major new businesspeople being brought into the investigation. It doesn’t help Macri that he really doubled down on the bilateral relationship with the United States, and now the United States is in a much different trade and investment policy stance than we were last year. Thank you. And so, you know, it’s a swing to the right, a swing to the left. Michel Temer, the president who came into office in a questionably legitimate way, caught on this wiretap with his bagman, essentially, walking around with money that he had received from the meatpacking company JBS. You have the Chileans and their current leadership of the Pacific Alliance, I think really masterfully handling the situation by calling very quickly the meeting that they had in Vina back in March, I believe, between the TPP countries, the Pacific Alliance countries, and their FTA partners, which also brings Korea and China to the table, which, you know, was made a great, you know, deal of hubbub in the press about the fact that China was there, despite China not being terribly ambitious on the liberalization side. No, that means that they’re trying to find answers. But if there’s anything that we’ve learned through our own electoral process last year here in the United States, is that your macroeconomic indicators can be strong but if wages and employment are lagging, the political payment can still be pretty fierce. But it looks to me that the government has really lost all legitimacy in its actions, and the people are suffering, and—from the emails and things that I get from people I still know down there. But as I said before, I think there are things that can be done to sort of create the—create some of the division within the government. So whereas the peace issue, there is a real partisan kind of incentive and motivation to push that for political reasons.

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